Even if Bitcoin ended September with a loss, previous good rallies in October may encourage bulls. Only twice since 2013 has BTC ended the month of October in the negative, according to data from coinglass: in 2014 and 2018. This makes a recovery in October more likely.
Since last week, the price of BTC has been hovering around the June low of $17,550. The lengthy wick on the candlestick indicates that bears are still selling on rallies despite the bulls’ attempts to begin a recovery this week.
The S&P 500 (US500) has decreased for six straight days, according to TradingView. The index briefly fell below its low from June on September 27, a sign that investors are continuing to sell in anticipation of a recession brought on by the US Federal Reserve’s rate increases.
Although the June low for bitcoin (BTC) has not yet been retested, the bulls have failed to keep the price above $20,000 so far. By holding BTC below $19,000 as of September 28, 2022, the bears hope to strengthen their position.
Institutional investors lose hope
But it appears that institutional investors are not expecting a turnaround any time soon. According to data from ycharts, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which is thought to be preferred by institutional investors due to its simplicity of usage with a brokerage account, is currently selling at a discount of more than 35% to its net asset value.
The market intelligence company Glassnode stated in its The Week Onchain newsletter on September 26 that Bitcoin HODLers have not panicked during the current bad market and that short-term holders have been responsible for the majority of coin movement.
It stated, “The HODLer class remain resolute with both mature coin USD wealth reaching ATHs, and a multitude of lifespan metrics fully resetting to historical lows, emphasizing the unwillingness to spend held coins. This suggests the majority of current market churn is associated with the Short-Term Holder class.”