What is BTC reserve risk?
The Reserve Risk is a cyclical BTC on-chain indicator that measures the confidence of long-term holders relative to the current asset price. When confidence is high but the price is low, reserve risk gives low values. These times have historically offered the best risk to reward ratios.
Specifically, values below 0.002 (green) are considered to provide favorable risk to reward ratios. Conversely, those above 0.02 (red) are considered to provide disadvantageous risk to reward ratios.
Throughout the price history of BTC, every single market cycle top has been reached while reserve risk provided a reading above 0.02. Conversely, every single bottom has been reached below 0.002.
An interesting observation comes when analyzing the time it takes for a bottom to be reached after reserve risk crosses below 0.002 for the first time.
- 2011: the bottom was reached one month after reserve risk first crossed below 0.002.
- 2014: the bottom was reached four months after reserve risk first crossed below 0.002
- 2019: the bottom was reached one month after reserve risk first crossed below 0.002.
In 2022, reserve risk decreased below 0.002 for the first time in the beginning of January. The current bottom of $35,036 was reached later that month.
If a bottom has not yet been reached, it would mean that five months have passed since reserve risk first decreased below 0.002. As a result, it would be the longest time it took for BTC to reach a bottom after such a cross occurred.
Additionally, it is worth mentioning that reserve risk has not crossed above 0.2 since December 2017.
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