The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™ has been released by Markit Economics as follows:
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March) 49.5 (vs. expected 50.3).
AUD/USD update
The AUD/USD bulls are engaged but the data is not favorable and it’s another poor number from China which is hardly bullish for AUD. The bias is tilted to the downside if the bulls don´t step in at key resistance.
About Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™
The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI™, released by Markit Economics, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.
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The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released on Tuesday came in at 49.5, a slight decline from the previous month’s reading of 50.3 and below economists’ estimates of 50.3. This latest result weighed on the outlook of the Australian dollar/US dollar (AUD/USD) currency pair.
The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in China. The reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector, while a result above 50 signals an expansion. The slight decline in the reading to 49.5 is concerning and suggests China’s economic growth is still struggling.
The trade war between the US and China has been an ongoing issue since 2018, and has weighed heavily on the Chinese manufacturing sector. Recent positive sentiment from the Phase 1 trade deal agreement has given some hope to the sector, but unfortunately this was not enough to lift the PMI reading to the expected 50.3.
Unsurprisingly, the decline in the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI weighed on the outlook of the AUD/USD currency pair at the start of the day. A weaker outlook for the Chinese economy is generally seen as negative for the Australian dollar, as the Chinese economy is Australia’s largest trading partner.
Investors will now be closely monitoring the Chinese economy for further signs of improvement or deterioration. If there is more economic weakness, the AUD/USD could be pushed lower. On the other hand, if the trade war finally comes to a close, it could help to bolster the outlook for the currency pair. In either case, investors should remain vigilant and carefully consider the implications of the latest PMI readout.