U.S. recession probabilities rise to 40-45% in six months: DoubleLine’s Gundlach

U.S. recession probabilities rise to 40-45% in six months: DoubleLine’s Gundlach

FILE PHOTO: Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital LP, presents during the 2019 Sohn Investment Conference in New York City, U.S., May 6, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

(Reuters) – Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, said on Thursday the odds of the United States sliding into a recession in the next six months has risen to 40-45% and the odds were 65% within the next year.

Gundlach, who oversees more than $130 billion in assets under management, said the yield curve and the New York Fed recession probability showed a rising probability of recession.

“Several indicators suggest a recession could take place in one year,” Gundlach said on an investor website, adding consumer indicators point to “the front edge of a recession.”

Gundlach said the Fed probably will not cut rates in June but likely will later in summer. As for the bond market, Gundlach, who has long forecasted 6% on the 10-year Treasury yield by the next presidential election or a year after, said if the government would not get involved in the manipulation in bond yields, the 10-year bond yield would rise to 6% by 2021.

If the United States starts heading on the path to 6%, the Fed “will not let the market price” and “manipulate interest rates down,” Gundlach said.

Reporting by Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Tom Brown and Lisa Shumaker

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